We only ask that you follow, “A Little More on How Undecided Voters Might Break.”, “What Exactly Is a Swing Voter? When asked, “How much attention do you normally pay to what is going on in national government and politics?” 57 percent of voters and 68 percent of decided voters said they pay a lot of attention, but only 39 percent of swing voters said so. In American politics, many centrists, liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty. We are supported by generous grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and The National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM) Foundation. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping Jesse Ventura win the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 1998. This suggests that lesbian and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. When asked whether it really matters who wins, somewhat matters, or doesn’t really matter, 82 percent of all voters and 92 percent of decided voters said they believe it matters, but just 66 percent of swing voters said they believe it really matters. The smaller the group, the more power swing voters can have. Nglish: Translation of undecided for Spanish Speakers. "[4] In the 2016 presidential election, people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender cast 78 percent of their votes for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. In fact, swing voters watch presidential debates in about the same percentages as nonswing voters and are actually, “To the extent that swing voters are demographically different from nonswing voters, moreover, their distinctive attributes vary from election to election. Swing voters who support third-party candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. A swing vote is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. undecided synonyms, undecided pronunciation, undecided translation, English dictionary definition of undecided. 1. Smaller groups that use voting to decide matters, such as chambers of parliament and supreme courts, can also have swing voters. This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 6, 2019. Twice as many swing voters said they pay only a little attention or none at all—17 percent, compared with just 8 percent of those who are decided. For example, on a court of seven judges, of which three are committed to each side of a case, the seventh judge may be seen as single-handedly deciding the case. The "they" of course refers to that sliver of people who say they remain undecided in the 2012 presidential race. They may be dissatisfied party members who are open to the idea of voting for other parties, or they could be officially registered as "independents" or simply people who have never had a strong affiliation with any political party and will vote depending on certain things that influence them: healthcare, benefits, election campaign, etc. (See Katharine Q. Seelye’s piece in the New York Times on female swing voters.) In an election, there are "certain" or "lock" votes, voters who are solidly behind or partisan to a particular candidate and will not consider changing their minds whatever the opposition says. The National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM) Foundation. About 60% of this group in this election cycle are women. A Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 10-13 — a random survey of 1,252 adults, with an error margin of 3.5 percentage points — suggested that 9% of likely voters say there is still a “chance” they would change their mind. Those who only probably would vote for one candidate but definitely would not vote for the other have a good chance of either not voting or throwing a vote to a third-party candidate. Common examples of swing voters include "Reagan Democrats" (Democrats who voted for Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980s) and "Clinton Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton). Some recent pieces of journalistic analysis provide insights related to this subject: Ben White’s “Meet the Undecided Voter,” at Politico and Adam Davidson’s “Vote Obamney!” in The New York Times Magazine. Swing voters are undecided about how they will vote. Eleven percent of all voters are “pure independents”—that is, they don’t identify with or even lean toward either major party—but 18 percent of swing voters are pure independents. Presidential general elections are generally determined by two factors: the size and relative enthusiasm of each major party’s base, and which way the swing voters in the middle go. As Vavreck told NPR in October, the issue isn’t so much indecisiveness or confusion as available time to focus on politics: “It isn’t that they’re looking at Mitt Romney and looking at Barack Obama and weighing them. Definition of undecided. As a generalization, then, one can say that although swing voters are a bit more difficult to reach than nonswing voters, they are not so isolated or apolitical as to make the campaigner’s task impossible. Further, we can expect those who do to check into the race very late. There are also differences by state: "California GLB voters are more likely to identify as 'Independent' than are GLB voters nationally, and therefore have a greater potential to play the role of a swing vote in a close election."[6]. 17 synonyms of undecided from the Merriam-Webster Thesaurus, plus 18 related words, definitions, and antonyms. Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-ND 4.0), “In every single survey, there is a large and statistically significant difference, in exactly the direction predicted: swing voters are less partisan…. Yet, movement in the post-presidential debate polls strongly suggested that prior survey research underestimated the size of the undecided population — or at least those who were “persuadable.”. This article first appeared on Journalist's Resource and is republished here under a Creative Commons license. They’re not looking yet.” She notes that among the group of voters she’s studied, roughly 7% have changed their mind over the course of the year, moving from Romney to Obama, or vice versa. This resulted in Jesse Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the election. Swing voters tend to be younger, more moderate, and less engaged in politics compared to those who have decided and to the overall electorate. The reality is that parties are like people: They should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. What makes them different from those who have decided, and from the overall electorate? Since they pay less attention than other voters and are less likely to believe that the outcome is important, you just have to wonder how many of these undecided will really vote. The 2nd-biggest idiots on the planet, right behind people who vote solely because of party. All Rights Reserved. The Electoral College: How America picks its president, You are free to republish this piece both online and in print, and we encourage you to do so with the embed code provided below. Swing voters occasionally play a huge part in elections. To the contrary, in 1996, 2000, and 2004, it was men who were more likely to be swing voters (though the difference never quite achieves statistical significance).”. Just 16 percent of swing voters called themselves liberal, while 26 percent self-identified as conservative. Some might be people who have never exercised their right to vote before, such as those just reaching voting age. Every four years, members of both parties debate which factor is more important—turning out their partisans or appealing to the middle. There is a perception that swing voters are primarily motivated by self-interest rather than values or ideology and so are particularly susceptible to pork barreling. Finally, when swing voters were asked to think exclusively about several individual issues and whether each made them more or less likely to vote for Trump or the Democrat, Democrats had the advantage among swing voters on climate change (net +38), health care (+18), and immigration (+10), while the issue of the economy (+12) gave Trump an advantage. We only ask that you follow a few basic guidelines. Unless otherwise noted, this site and its contents – with the exception of photographs – The findings of the paper, which analyzes American National Election Studies survey data over the period 1972-2004, include: A related 2012 study by the same author, “The Disappearing — but Still Important — Swing Voter,” provides additional insights on the subject. Voters were asked whether they would definitely or probably vote for President Trump next year, or definitely or probably vote for the Democratic candidate. Across these five elections, men's support ranged from 67 percent to 75 percent, while women's support ranged from 53 percent to 82 percent.

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