The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. **The GDPNow update following the July 31, 2020, through August 5, 2020, releases will not occur until the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases updated underlying detail tables (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_UD.cfm) reflecting the 2020 annual revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. The charts show actual values and projections for three economic variables, based on FOMC participants' individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Information for these variables is shown for each year from 2015 to 2023, and for the longer run. No, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC. The longer-run projections, which are shown on the far right side of the charts, are the rates of growth, unemployment, and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time—maybe in five or six years—in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. Most participants continued to view the uncertainties around their forecasts for GDP growth, total inflation, and core inflation as broadly similar to the average over the past 20 years. Neither of these surveys includes forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP. Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—as measured from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. The blue connected horizontal and vertical lines ("whiskers") represent the range of the projections of policymakers. At this point, no. quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, monthly value of private residential construction spending put in place, Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending, International trade (Full report), Employment situation, M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report), Final nowcast of 2020:Q2 GDP growth:  Advance Economic Indicators, **Initial nowcast of 2020:Q3 GDP growth:  July 31 --Personal income and outlays; August 3 -- ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending; August 4 -- M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report); August 5 -- International trade (Full report), ISM Nonmanufacturing Index, International trade (Full report), ISM Nonmanufacturing Index, Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Personal income and outlays, Advance Economic Indicators, Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction spending, Final nowcast of 2020:Q3 GDP growth:  Advance Economic Indicators, Initial nowcast of 2020:Q4 GDP growth:  Personal income and outlays, Retail sales + inventories, Industrial production and capacity utilization, Import and export prices, Gross Domestic Product (2020:Q3 second estimate), Personal income and outlays, Advance durable manufacturing, Advance Economic Indicators, New-home sales, Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, New-home sales. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. For 2021, Fed officials see anything from a continued recession to the biggest boom since 1984. Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Revisions to retail sales are used to anticipate revisions to real monthly expenditures in the "PCE control group" and revisions to housing starts are used to anticipate revisions in the monthly value of private residential construction spending put in place. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Kathleen Navin, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, provides a bird's-eye view illustrating how to use a bridge equation approach in practice to improve GDP forecasts in this 2017 presentation. Return to table, 3. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate. Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. The figure below shows how the forecasts become more accurate as the interval between the date the forecast is made and the forthcoming GDP release date narrows. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. How accurate are the GDPNow forecasts? A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper. Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. Inflation. Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint (GDPC1CTM) from 2020 to 2023 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA. The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 2.2 percent on October 30. To summarize, the BEA's NIPA Handbook provides very detailed documentation on both the source data and methods used for estimating the subcomponents of GDP. The solid red lines depict the median projection in each period for each variable. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases. Release schedule subject to change. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models. The range and central tendency for each variable in each projection period are depicted in "box and whiskers" format. The bottom of the range for each variable is the lowest of all of the projections for that year or period. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents under their individual assessments of projected appropriate monetary policy, June 2020 Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the December 10–11, 2019, meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the June 9-10, 2020, meeting. The model forecast is updated six or seven times a month on weekdays, with at least one following seven data releases: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900), Wholesale Trade, Monthly Retail Trade Report, New Residential Construction, Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers, and Personal Income and Outlays. The light blue shaded boxes represent the central tendency, which is a narrower version of the range that excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year or period. The econometric techniques used in our GDPNow model were heavily adapted from the GDP nowcasting models described in a 1996 Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review article by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin and a 2008 paper by the Board's David Small and economists Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin. See the tab "ReadMe" in the spreadsheet for hyperlinks to the historical forecasts and other data for the model.

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